UFC 104 Predictions

It is time for The Fight Nerd to make some predictions! I have done this before on my podcast and am debating on whether or not to make future predictions into videos, so we will see how this goes.

UFC 104 is this Saturday night at the Staples Center in California and I think will surprise us all with the level of this shows fights. The main event is to see who will wear the Light Heavyweight title in a war between two fellow Brazilians, Lyoto Machida and Mauricio Rua. It is definitely going to be a clash of styles and has the potential to be an exciting match, but we will talk about that in about 700 words from now.

I am only going to do longer explanations of the main card matches this time around, that is assuming these are all broadcast, but I will do picks for the undercard too towards the end of this.

Ryan Bader VS Eric Schafer

Can I really pick against a guy whos nickname is “Darth”? It is hard not to, but against Eric Schafer, Bader will have to use more than the force to overcome his opponent. The undefeated Bader will have his hands full with the man who essentially booted fan-favorite Houston Alexander from the UFC. Despite my initial statement, I am going to pick against the man named after a Star Wars character and go with Schafer on this one as he continues to push his way towards possible contendership. I see his ground game being a bigger threat than Bader will necessarily be ready for and Red will end the undefeated streak.

Anthony Johnson VS Yoshiyuki Yoshida

My favorite fighter to have a nickname based on a Transformers character (whether its based on that or not), Anthony Johnson, looks to meet my favorite Japanese fighter with a nickname that only makes sense in Japanese, Yoshiyuki Yoshida. On top of that, he has more Y’s in his name than a can of alphabet soup. The level of competition Yoshida has faced is a bit higher than the young Johnson, but he has not done too well against the higher end competition and I feel Johnson is on the rise and will meet this challenge head on and knock out Yoshida to add a new notch on his belt.

Joe Stevenson vs Spencer Fisher

Here is a shoe-in for fight of the night on this already pretty exciting card! With 97 fights total between them, I do not expect anything less than a back and forth battle from these lightweights with similar training backgrounds. I think Joe Stevenson will pull this one out, but it will not be easy. Fisher is sturdy and will not quit, so Stevenson is going to have to do what he does best, and that is keep in control and be dominant every second of these three rounds. Good luck with that against Fisher, you’re gonna need it! These MMA veterans are going to put on a show for us and the real winner is going to be the fans!

Gleison Tibau VS Josh Neer

Josh Neer, who is replacing an injured Sean Sherk and is 2-2 in the octagon, is not looking at an easy night in the cage against Gleison Tibau. If you like MMA math, you can look at these guys records and do some calculations, but when it comes down to it, I give this one to Tibau, despite a hungry Neer doing all he can to get this win. His ground experience should be an asset in this fight but I do not count Neer out for the future, he just might not be ready to overcome Tibau on this night.

Cain Velasquez VS Ben Rothwell

Big Ben Rothwell makes his octagon debut after missing his chance in Affliction:Trilogy against undefeated Cain Velasquez. Unfortunately, those 6 wins do not necessarily stand up to the over 30 fights on Rothwell’s record which includes wins over Roy Nelson, Ricco Rodriquez, Mike Whitehead and many other notable big men. Velasquez has nothing to lose and everything to gain if he can triumph over Rothwell, and he has only gone the distance one time in his short MMA career. This is a tough battle to call and Cain has some power in those hands of his and underrated wrestling, but Rothwell does have that experience factor. I am going with The Northstar on this one, but is a tough call and I think it is one of those fights that can really go any way on any given night if they just slug it out, but if Rothwell plays smart he can take this one.

Lyoto Machida (C) VS Mauricio Rua – Light Heavyweight Championship

Here is an interesting match. We have two world-renowed strikers with two very distinct and different styles. Both have solid ground games that we do not see as much as we would like. The undefeated Machida is an enigmatic and elusive foe with most of his wins by decision, whereas Rua is unrelenting aggression locked in a cage whose record yields only a smattering of decisions. To Machida’s defense, he has finished the last three out of four opponents he had and he is definitely peaking right now, whereas Rua seems to have a problem maintaining a peak and being able to deliver when it counts, despite his winning record.
I see this fight as being a match that shows that Machida is not as boring as we think since Rua is going to push him into a stand up fight and force Machida to show his hand early. In the end, I see Machida retaining his title in a pretty long fight, I am just hoping Machida uses this opportunity to really show his fans he is more than just a fighter who gets decisions.

As for the undercard, Stefan Struve should make short work of Chase Gormley, another newcomer from Affliction. Razak Al-Hassan and Kyle Kingsbury are both coming off loses and this should be an exciting undercard match that I give a slight edge to Al-Hassan. Rob Kimmons will have a good outing with the inconsistent Jorge Rivera and ultimately take the win, possibly with a knockout so look out for that!

Yushin Okami meets Chael Sonnen in a fight that could easily be on the main card, and really, how is it not? This is the hardest undercard fight for me to pick! I hope Okami is not suffering from ring rust, but based on that factor among others, I am going to go with Sonnen in this one. Finally, Antoni Hardonk will beat Pat Barry pretty soundly.

So here is the rundown of my picks – Struve, Al-Hassan, Kimmons, Sonnen, Hardonk, Schafer, Johnson, Tibau, Stevenson, Rothwell and Machida to retain his title.

Overall, I feel this is a pretty compelling card that looks good on paper, better than it should for a show that does not have huge name power attached to it. It is very hungry and, for the most part, very evenly matched fights that should be competitive and solid victories for the fighters who earn them.

So who do you think is going to win these fights?