This Friday, the UFC will close out the year with a clash of their biggest and baddest as Alistair Overeem fights against Brock Lesnar for the number one contender spot in the heavyweight division. And with a big event comes a chance to win big money by callously tearing down the hard work of others.

Below is a bettor’s analysis of the main card of UFC 141, evaluating the risks and rewards of the individual fights as well recommendations for spreading wagers over the card as a whole. All money lines referenced are aggregate numbers and may vary slightly between books.

Brock Lesnar (+115) vs Alistair Overeem (-145)- When looking at each fighters’ strengths and how they have played into their opponents’ games in the past, the bout between Lesnar and Overeem should be an even money affair. Lesnar has shown that his game plan and composure break down when he is hit with a solid combination to the face. Meanwhile, as evidenced in his bout with Fabricio Werdum, Overeem has shown that when he is too wary of a possible takedown that his machinations tend to get seriously gummed up.

Those factors make this matchup a race between two quick starters to see who gets his game going first, which is essentially a coin flip. Reports of Lesnar’s persistent health problems and the possibility that they may effect his performance rightly account for his slight underdog status.

Normally when the money lines perfectly reflect the realities of a fight, the smart gambler will stay away from them. Money is made on bets when some miscalculation creates a discrepancy between the money line and what the real chances are. That being said, while taking the average odds available as of now is a bad idea, slight variations between sports books or any changes in the odds as fight time approaches can be golden.

If on Friday morning any legitimate books are offering either +130 or better on Lesnar or even money or better on Overeem, that would be a smart bet. Either way, since this bout is a coin toss, keep the money small even with acceptable odds.

Nate Diaz (+220) vs. Donald Cerrone (-280)- This bout could potentially be a bad matchup for Diaz. Cerrone has momentum on his side and  Diaz has been consistently troubled by explosive lightweights like the cowboy. Diaz’s takedowns aren’t the strongest and, even if he could force the battle to the floor, there’s no certainty that he has the chops on the ground to submit Cerrone.

That being said, Nate still has three inches of reach advantage, which is enough to work his peculiar striking style that has badly frustrated opponents in the past. Also, the only time that Cerrone has ever been finished was by a quick guillotine while trying to charge in on an opponent with longer reach: a set of circumstances by which Diaz has won multiple fights.

Cerrone is still more likely to win this bout, but the +220 payout on Diaz makes him more than worth the risk. Put 20-25% of the total amount wagered for the event on Diaz. The card provides plenty of opportunities to anchor should he lose.

Jon Fitch (-225) vs. Johny Hendricks (+175)- For as impressive as Hendricks’ explosiveness can be, he is stepping in to a deep, dark place against Fitch. Hendricks has fought two big, tough, forward moving wrestlers at this level of competition, resulting in his only loss and a razor thin decision win. Fitch is the grandaddy of the fighter type that Hendricks has struggled against and the few skills that have troubled Fitch in the past Hendricks simply does not possess.

Whatever amount was bet on Diaz, put double on Fitch as an anchor. Even at -225 the former Purdue wrestler is a little underpriced.

Vladimir Matyushenko (+250) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (-325)- Gustafsson is a rising star facing perennial gatekeeper Vladimir Mayushenko, and if the odds are any indication, the former Russian Olympic wrestler is a test the public at large is convinced that Gustafsson can pass. The years have been hard on Matyushenko and his underdog status is deserved, but +250 is preposterous.

Matyushenko is more dangerous in the pocket than anyone Gustafsson has faced to date and could pose some interesting problems for him. Gustafsson is the more likely winner, but the odds are too long to bet on him. If putting money on this bout at all is a must, keep the wager small and put it on Matyushenko. The Janitor is not sure enough to bet the farm on, but he is more likely to pull off the upset than the numbers are giving him.

Nam Phan (-230) vs. Jimy Hettes (+180)- After his first impressive outing in the UFC, young Mr. Hettes is knocking at the gate and Nam Phan is there to try and turn him around. Unfortunately, with the odds as they are, this is a fight to be enjoyed, not bet on. Hettes is a young, fast, submission wizard who may be a little underestimated because he does not have the accumulated fame that Phan has gotten as a TUF alumnus and more experienced fighter.

But, the fact remains that Phan is better standing, does not take any unnecessary risks going for the finish, and has never been submitted. Phan is the clear favorite, but the numbers are simply too long right now to bet on either man. For the opening fight of the Pay Per View, smart money will stay in wallets.

Ah, the mixtape. Dating as far back as the early days of cassette tapes, the mixtape was a way for folks to compile their favorite songs into one spot. Today, that concept has evolved into mp3 playlists and similar things, but no matter how much the technology changes, the end result remains the same. After all, why should you buy an entire album just to get one song that you really like?

The fine folks over at Victory Belt Publications asked that same question when it came to their instructional books. That is why Lance Freimuth joined up with some of the top MMA fighters to create “The Grappler’s Manifesto,” a single-volume filled with techniques from a ton of top talent who have been battle-tested and fan-approved.

Is this manifesto with so many grappling aficionados worth reading, or does it come short of delivering on what other instructionals have done with just one person? Check out the review to find out!

“The Grappler’s Manifesto” weighs in at just over 350 pages of no-gi grappling techniques intended for amateur or professional MMA combat. The book features techniques from Greg Jackson, Randy Couture, Antonio Rodrigo Nogeuira, Dave Camarillo, Jon Fitch, Forest Griffin, Neil Melanson, and I think Karo Parisyan even snuck himself in it. That is a ton of talent for just one book, and about three tons worth of techniques.

A variety of topics are covered to improve your ground game, from the different phases of the guard, as well as turtle, cross-body, and front and back mounts. There are absolutely no takedowns in this, but there is a section on what to do after a sprawl. The majority of the book is guard techniques, including sweeps, submissions, and passes. While the main focus is on grappling, this is not necessarily for competitive grappling, and includes striking as entries into many of the techniques. This is very helpful to people who plan on competing and training in all-around fighting, but the moves work fine without the punches and knees too.

Every section is prefaced by a gameplan, where the author breaks down how best to implement the techniques and strategies in the chapter. This general overview is useful to put all of these pieces together into one coherent method of victory for you, and is as close as you will get to personalization in this book since each type of fighter is referenced to a specific combatant (more on that in a bit).

The book features plenty of full color photographs dissecting each move piece by piece, however it was disproportionate to the amount of text in this book. Most moves start with a very large paragraph to introduce the move, and when I say large, I mean that. I am not sure what happened to paragraph breaks since there are none here, but these huge blocks of text are a turn off to me. The instructions are easy to follow and well-written, they just look frighteningly large on some pages since there are no paragraph breaks. The design of the book is more dynamic than previous books, making it more exciting to look at, but the text throws that off.

Here is my one huge complaint with this book, which is a first in a long time for a product from Victory Belt. While all of these diverse instructors sounds very cool, it seems very random and unorganized. There is nothing introducing the fighters who demonstrate the techniques, nor anything to personalize them. Every description is written in the first-person tone of voice, rather than saying the name of the fighter doing the move. There is also very little uniformity in the photos of this book, specifically since everything was shot in different places with different lighting.

Ultimately, the reason for this became quite obvious after reading the press release promoting the book. “I had been working with these guys in the gyms or editing their individual books,” wrote Freimuth, “But in the back of my mind I was always thinking how great it would be to have them write some of their best techniques in one book.” In other words, the book was an after-thought to much larger products, and while the info is great in this book, it comes off random and the lack of uniformity or personalization detracts from the final result.

Instructional books or DVD’s are difficult to do when treated as a compilation. The best way I have seen them work is when each fighter is given a chance to personalize it and explain why they do this move and how it works for their style. “The Grappler’s Manifesto” dives into technique after technique, never giving the fighters a chance to have a distinct voice.

Despite that gripe I have with the book, I still found it very useful and packed with information. Is it my favorite book from Victory Belt? Not even close. Is it a bad book? Not at all. You will learn a lot from the different instructors and it will absolutely help your ground game in many common positions & situations. The book feels incomplete to me in terms of design and composition, lacking a personal touch of Victory Belt’s single-author books since there are so many people lumped into this volume, and none of the moves seeming signature or special to anyone specific in it. Again, there are tons of great techniques here, but the name value of these fighters is undermined by not allowing them to discuss the techniques and be hyped up more.

This book normally retails for $34.96, but you can grab “The Grappler’s Manifesto” from Amazon for a little over $20. I would recommend this book more for a beginner or intermediate level student of MMA, and it would definitely be a great gift for them during the holiday season. Seeing these UFC fighters and others in action all in one book might be more inspiring to them than it was to me, and they will get more than enough information to improve their skills. This book is a good entry-level volume to lead readers towards other books that will start to hone their game, but for the time being, this is a perfect start to a long career in MMA.

Here are some other books that we reviewed that you might like as well: “Marcelo Garcia: Advanced BJJ Techniques, ” “Anderson Silva: MMA Instruction Manual”, and The UFC Encyclopedia.

Jakks Pacific has revealed the third wave of UFC action figures, which includes Karo Parisyan, Jon Fitch, Thiago Silva, a classic Chuck Liddell and Mark Coleman, and Mauricio Rua in his Pride FC gear. More importantly, Jakks has finally given an accessory to a figure in this line, and an excellent one at that!

BJ Penn will come packaged with his UFC Championship Belt, which is the first time since Wave 0 that a figure had an accessory. The last time was Miguel Torres with his WEC Championship Belt, but that was some time long ago. Sadly, Penn is the only figure in this line to have an accessory, but something is better than nothing.

Hit the jump for pics of all the figures in this wave!

Via Wrestlingfigs.com

Wave 2 of the UFC action figures, made by Jakks Pacific, are on the way to you, and they include three new faces – Mike Thomas Brown, Nate Marquardt and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The remaining five characters in this line are reissues of Lesnar, Evans, Gracie, Liddell, and Forrest Griffin. No changes appear to have been made to them in any way but if you missed them the first time, here is your second chance. If you want to see a better look at some of these figures, have a look at our video review of Wave 1 and see if you like them.

Wave 3 was also announced, which is set for release in early April, includes Chuck Liddell, BJ Penn, Jon Fitch, Mark Coleman, Shogun Rua, Karo Parisyan and Thiago Silva. That makes seven figures, so there is one mystery figure yet to be revealed. Chuck happens to be another repaint we can assume (since he never really changed his shorts) but the Fitch was rumored to have a removable afro according to an interview we did with Jakks Pacific rep Enrique Ruvalcaba earlier.

GSP = LNP? WTF!
BY MATTHEW WHEELER

This article has been written in response to James Rowe’s article at this link:http://www.thefightnerd.com/gsp-lnp//

Let me start this off with a little history on Georges st. Pierre to get everyone a little more into where I am coming from. GSP started Kyokushin karate at the age of seven, with his father and another master, later on in his life he picked up wrestling, B.J.J., and boxing. He earned his brown belt from Renzo Gracie and his black belt from Bruno Fernandes in Brazilian jiu jitsu. Entering the fight world he knew little about ground game and won his first amateur and pro fight by KO / TKO. Four of his first seven fights, and eight of his twenty one pro fights have been won and stopped by his striking. He has went to decision six times in 21 fights all six resulting in a win.

        Lay and pray, in my eyes is sitting in guard or half guard with no attempts to improve position, submit, or cause severe damage by ground and pound to opponents. Every single time I watch GSP these days, he is working for mount, side control, or a submission once he works his takedowns. A good example of the striker based GSP is his fight against Jon Fitch, how many times was Fitch dropped by GSP? Lets take a look at GSP compared to other fighters now. BJ Penn has had 20 fights six have gone to decision, 3 of them he has lost, GSP won all six. So we have 21 -6 and 20-6 for BJ Penn and GSP and BJ has the right to call GSP a boring Decision fighter that Lay’s and prays the whole time? GSP comes into every fight with a game plan, He came in there and finished BJ Penn with his striking, Matt Hughes is the only other to do this. Did he lay in pray that fight? GSP was not a wrestling pedigree, but look at the wrestlers he has beat. Sean Sherk, has had over 400 wrestling matches in his life, beaten by GSP. Koscheck was a D-1 wrestling champion, and was beaten by GSP. Matt Hughes “All American Wrestler” beaten by strikes, and by a wicked arm bar. Alves had a fight with submission attempts resulting in GSP being in bottom position, GSP pulled a muscle in his groin, he still conquered with ground control, not lay and pray, and left Alves battered and beaten after the fight. Fitch received worse, especially considering GSP knocked down Fitch around eight times with his strikes. It’s funny to say he is a lay and pray artist and boring fighter, yet all these guys have split faces or lost the fight to complete domination. I guess  that praying somehow battered all these guys up?

        No other fighter has takedown timing like St. Pierre. GSP has thrown effective knees to the mid section from side control. He has thrown punches and elbows to end fights. He has also used submissions on the ground to end fights. It’s not like he has won 19 fights by a boring decision, he has won 6 by decision, 8 by KO/TKO, and 5 by submission. He has avenged his only two professional loses against Matt Hughes, and Matt Serra. He also went back and avenged a close decision win to BJ Penn by raining down vicious ground and pound threw GnP almost the whole fight, forcing the towel to be thrown in, by a guy who said he was going to fight to the death. I didn’t see where his laying on BJ Penn resulted in him quitting.

GSP comes into every fight with a great game plan, and he is in my opinion the best in combining grappling with striking. Watch his fights with Matt Hughes He puts on a Striking, footwork, and takedown defense show. He is the complete package, beating fighters at what they are good at. Koscheck and Penn are my best examples of this he beat a great wrestler and took down Mr. takedown defense. He also has incredible heart to go back into a fight, with a serious injury, and land a takedown and continue to try and end the fight. Ground control and takedowns is what GSP is a master of, it is not an easy thing to do, even against better wrestlers but he seems to pull it off it great fashion. Of course to the casual MMA fan he will be called boring, and a lay and prayer, but in my eyes he is a Master and the best all around fighter that combines grappling with striking.