A Fight Nerd’s Betting Guide: UFC on Fox 2

This Saturday, the UFC will hold its second card on Fox proper, marking the first time that Fox will host multiple fights on their flagship station in a single evening. Though slightly abridged from the Pay Per Views, the three fight main card still provides some opportunity to profit off of the hard work of others using math.

Below is a bettor’s analysis of the main card of UFC on Fox 2, evaluating the risks and rewards of the individual fights as well recommendations for spreading wagers over the card as a whole. All money lines referenced are aggregate numbers and may vary slightly between books.

Rashad Evans (-170) vs. Phis Davis (+140)- It’s unfortunate that the numbers here run counter to where my heart wants to go. The pride of my former university’s wrestling program has some very close odds against former champion Rashad Evans, but ultimately the thin favorite status just makes Evans a more attractive betting prospect.

In spite of his long reach, Davis has proven to be gun shy in the pocket. This tendency has a serious negative effect on his ability to set up his most valuable asset: his shot. In his most recent bout against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira , Davis’ initial refusal to stalk shut down his ability to press the takedown and, as a result, Nogueira was able to defend it for the first half of the fight.

Evans is a statistically better defensive wrestler than Nogueira and is an actual takedown threat to Davis, which changes the landscape of the exchanges, significantly.

More often than not, this fight is a slam dunk for Evans, who will serve as the primary betting anchor for the evening. 50% of the total amount bet tonight goes on Suga’

Chael Sonnen (-450) vs. Michael Bisping (+350)- A lot of potentially faulty MMA math has been applied to this bout to turn Chael Sonnen into a nearly 5-1 favorite. Sonnen’s performance against Anderson Silva where he nearly won the middleweight title is placed as the chief reason that Bisping doesn’t have a prayer. Shortly after that is the fact that Sonnen is, heel or no heel, one of the most liked personalities in MMA where Bisping can count his American fans using his fingers. Some fan wishing in the bets is definitely tilting these odds.

The actual statistics worth paying attention to are on Bisping’s side. Since 2008, The Count has been taken down twice, only once with a kind of takedown that Sonnen would conceivably employ. And, in his entire career, Bisping has never come close to being submitted.

Even money, Sonnen would obviously be the best bet. The most likely scenario is that Sonnen will run Bisping down with takedowns and conservatively pound him out. Plus, Bisping has never pulled off a submission from guard against top-tier competition, which has been Sonnen’s Achilles heel in the past.

But, even though the numbers favor Sonnen, they do not justify such extreme odds as the ones currently being offered. Bisping is the most difficult man to run down in the UFC and he has at least a decent chance of out-pointing Sonnen off his back foot. While such an upset would infuriate both fans and UFC brass looking to push the more profitable Sonnen, it’s still well within the realm of possibility.

Play the long odds on this bout and place 20% of the total amount bet on the underdog. The other two main card fights offer a lot of room to anchor and Bisping is more likely to actually pay off than most +350 dogs in the sport.

Damian Maia (+125) vs. Chris Weidman (-155)- As a slight underdog, Maia is an interesting man for the betting purists to analyze in this fight. The single most probable outcome is a submission victory for Maia, based on quality of competition. But, Maia is still losing badly to the field of possibilities that end in a Weidman victory. Though young in the sport, Weidman is a notoriously difficult fighter to submit, presenting similar difficulties to those Maia recently faced against Mark Munoz. Further, while Weidman doesn’t have the smoothest striking in the world, he does have the deadly combination of one-punch knockout power and a serious takedown threat in the pocket, which is how Maia met the most famous defeat of his career.

There is essentially no way for Maia to win this fight by decision and a lot of ways it can go the distance, making Weidman the smartest bet, even at his slight favorite status with a severe submission threat looming in the stats. The remaining 30% of the total bet goes to the New York boy.