A Fight Nerd’s Betting Guide: UFC 137- Penn VS Diaz

Penn and Diaz at respective pressers

With a new UFC Pay Per View coming to the Mandalay Bay event Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday presents a whole new set of opportunities for bystanders to make money on the toil and suffering of others by using math. While the main event of UFC 137, a welterweight tilt between Nick Diaz and former champion B.J. Penn, is the kind of fight smart gamblers should stay away from, the rest of the main card serves as some very fertile betting ground.

Below is a bettor’s analysis of the main card of UFC 137, evaluating the risks and rewards of each individual fight as well recommendations for spreading wagers over the card as a whole. All money lines referenced are aggregate numbers and may vary slightly between books.

B.J. Penn (-150) versus Nick Diaz (+120): Based solely on the metrics of statistics inside the cage, Nick Diaz might be the most under priced pick on the card. Neither Penn nor Diaz are much for takedowns, save as a surprise tactic against fighters supposedly better on the ground, so the vast majority of the bout will be contested on the feet. And, while Penn has had nothing but success in fights at outside striking range, Diaz is a better finisher with greater reach than any opponent Penn has logged a win over.

On a neutral field, Diaz wins this fight three times out of five and should not be the underdog at all. That said, the fight is not on a neutral field. It’s in the UFC octagon. To say that Diaz has shown signs of mental instability going in to his return to the promotion is putting it mildly. Diaz made several public statements when he was first slated to face the division champion Georges St. Pierre that he hated the fame and felt more notoriety would trap him in MMA forever.

So, the stats clearly say to, at underdog odds, bet the farm on Diaz. But, the looming possibility of complete mental breakdown of the otherwise smart bet simply makes him too risky. Looking at the best betting portfolio for the card as a whole, smart money will stay in pockets for this main event.

Cheick Kongo (-160) versus Matt Mitrione (+130): Matt Mitrione credits a lot of his development as a fighter to his stand up work with Pat Barry, who Kongo recently beat. This has lead many to apply MMA math to Kongo being Mitrione’s superior in the standing and striking. As is so often the case, this MMA math is faulty.

Even forgetting that Barry was winning the fight decisively before Kongo found his opening to turn it around, Mitrione does bring some advantages to the table that Barry does not. A combination of longer reach and a more solid ground game will make Mitrione much less squeamish about throwing his power shots than Barry was. This fact combined with Kongo’s general inconsistency and past troubles with fighters who pressure him makes Mitrione look like a solid bet.

At even money, this fight would be a pick ‘em, which means that Mitrione is underpriced by about 30%. A large amount of the total money bet on the card should be bet on Mitrione, with the same number going on a slight favorite in another fight to anchor the total winnings on the 50/50 shot that Kongo can pull it out.

Roy Nelson (-200) versus Mirko Filipovic (+160): There is not a soul who lived through the days of Pride and the IFL that could have predicted a day where Crop-Cop would be a heavy underdog against Roy Nelsen, but in 2011 it actually makes sense. While Nelson’s style isn’t flawless, as evidenced in his last two losses, generally the only fighters that can give Big Country stylistic problems are ones significantly faster or more massive than he is.

Going in to this bout, Cro-Cop is the smaller fighter and time has seemed to ravage his once legendary speed. The former legend will have little he can do once Nelson cuts him off and puts him against the cage. So, even at -200 the price is just right for Big Country. This is one of two bouts that would make a good anchor bet for those who also put money down on Mitrione.

George Roop (-150) versus Hatsu Hioki (+120): At this risk of being strung up by the six remaining fans of Japanese MMA, Roop is the other good anchor bet on the card. This will be the first time the Sengoku submission ace will be fighting in the octagon, and even where they seem like they would help, cage walls have a tendency to wreak havoc with the takedown and top control game of a fighter who knows how to use them.

Roop may not be a brilliant striker, but he very much outclasses his almost purely grappling opponent. His reach advantage and greater size will stifle Hioki’s attempts to get inside and if Hioki actually manages to get the fight to the ground without being too badly damaged in the process, expect Roop to use the cage wall on his trip back to his feet.

At -150 Roop is actually a little underpriced and represents a great alternative as an anchoring bet to those who are skeptical of Big Country. When putting down money on both Roop and Nelson in their respective bouts, only have one sum match the amount bet on Mitrione as a potential offset, while the other should be a smaller amount.

Scott Jorgensen (-260) versus Jeff Curran (+200): Saturday is looking to be a bad night overall for nostalgia as one of the OG’s of the sport, Jeff Curran is being set up to take a fall against Scott Jorgensen. As has been detailed by basically every analyst who has waded into this bout, Jorgensen is a horrific stylistic matchup for Curran, whose two main problems throughout his career have been losing points due to takedowns or kicks absorbed against an opponent playing the range control game. Jorgensen is well equipped to do both.

A Jorgensen victory being a foregone conclusion aside, -260 is a hefty cost for all but the most blatant mismatches when it comes to MMA. A crafty veteran like Curran offers just enough potential for variance that a bet on Jorgensen should be small. But at these odds a small bet is hardly worth making for how little it will pay out.

Bettors are better off keeping their money to the middle three bouts.